Cape Town is trying to fix its broken train system, which stopped working in 2021. The city wants to take over the train lines, buy new trains, and make the stations better. They hope to have 240,000 people riding trains every day in three years and 600,000 in seven years. This big plan will cost a lot of money, and there are many challenges like money, legal stuff, and dealing with taxi drivers and workers. The next few months will decide if Cape Town can make its trains run again.
Cape Town plans to take over 280 km of track from the state operator, aiming for 240,000 daily trips in three years and 600,000 in seven. This involves a R42 billion investment in new trains, modernized infrastructure, and legal restructuring to establish a municipal railway.
The 07:42 from Kraaifontein crawled into Cape Town terminus at 09:00, spilled 200 hollow-eyed travellers onto the concourse and became the network’s last commercial run for four years. Copper thieves, torched coaches and a pandemic-axed maintenance purse had chased PRASA into total shutdown. Overnight, 600 000 low-income riders were marooned; freeways swelled by almost a fifth the next sunrise; taxi fares leapt three-tenths; “the train will return” turned into township gallows humour.
City Hall refused to treat the closure as irreversible. On 25 March 2025 councillors rubber-stamped a 312-page manifesto that sketches, down to the last hinge, how Cape Town could prise 280 km of track away from the flailing state operator and resurrect a municipal railway. Targets: 240 000 daily trips in three years, the pre-crash 600 000 in seven. The sections below lay bare the finances, the legal gymnastics, the engineering resurrection already under way, and the social chess game that still could scupper the entire gamble.
PRASA’s Western Cape inheritance in 2008 sounded impressive: 2 100 km of rail, 85 stations, 559 electric multiple-unit cars. Seventeen years later the rolling-stock head-count that can actually move under own power is 264; working station lighting is found at 187 stops; one-fifth of all track carries a 30 km/h crawl order. Average age of a motor-coach is 58 – older than most commuters’ parents. Treasury sent R2.9 bn in 2023/24; the region needed R4.7 bn just to stand still, so R1.8 bn of urgent work was silently shelved. Fare-box recovery is 18 %, a number matched globally only by railways that run through active war zones.
The proposed future splits into three horizons. Stabilise (2025-27) means patched track, fenced corridors, 78 new four-car trainsets and enough signalling to stop drivers using WhatsApp to avoid collisions. Modernise (2027-30) adds Communications-Based Train Control, level-crossing booms that actually descend, and stations rebuilt as micro-hubs with showers, Wi-Fi and crèche space. Expand (2030-35) pushes new track into the long-neglected Blue Downs triangle, finally giving 180 000 residents a one-seat 27-minute ride to the CBD.
South Africa’s Constitution never imagined a city running steel wheels on steel rails. Railways sit in the national-provincial bucket; municipalities aren’t invited. Clause 156(1)(b), however, lets a council step in when a service “relates to effective municipal delivery”. Cape Town’s legal team therefore designed a two-step shimmy: first, a 30-year delegation under Section 139(5) of the Constitution; second, a Special-Purpose Vehicle (SPV) that leases the right-of-way for one rand a year, wins its own safety licence and carries all operational risk. London Overground and Barcelona’s FGC pulled off the same manoeuvre in 2007 and 2010 – comforting precedents, not binding ones.
The R42 billion question
Where does the cash originate? National Treasury is asked for R18.4 bn, packaged as a once-off “devolution facilitation grant”, the same loophole that bank-rolled Gautrain. Cape Town’s own transport levy – already tacked onto property rates – would rise 1.5 cents per valuation point and yield R7.8 bn. Multilateral lenders (AFD and New Development Bank) are pencilled in for R6.2 bn, secured against future ticket income and carbon-credit sales. Selling 42 hectares of air rights above rebuilt stations could fetch R5.1 bn. Finally, a 15-year availability-payment concession – Alstom or Stadler builds and owns 78 trainsets, the city simply pays per available train-kilometre – fills the remaining R4.6 bn pot.
Spend-wise, 48 % buys rolling-stock, 21 % drags signalling into the digital age, 14 % renews drains, cuttings and bridges, 9 % reimagines stations, 8 % is contingency. The spreadsheet turns green in 2031 when fare-box recovery is projected at 67 %, yet the average 25 km trip would cost R7.20 in 2024 rands – still 30 % cheaper than the taxi alternative.
Blue Downs: the missing rail artery
Cape Town’s apartheid spatial map shunted 180 000 households into dormitory suburbs 28 km from work but skipped the railway. PRASA’s 2007 “Blue Downs Link” never progressed beyond rubble heaps beside the N2. The business plan revives the corridor: 16 km double-track, electrified, branching from Stock Road station, diving into a 1.2 km tunnel under the N2/Macassar interchange and soaring on a 1 km viaduct over the R300. Six new stations, 27 minutes to town versus 75 by taxi, price tag R5.9 bn. Environmental scoping started November 2024; 40 % of geotechnical cores are already bagged and logged; Treasury has ring-fenced R1.2 bn in the 2025 fiscal framework – money that evaporates if the main devolution accord is not signed.
Taxis: the empire that feeds on rail’s corpse
When the trains stopped, minibus taxis scooped up 1.9 million daily trips and R4.3 billion in annual cash. A reliable R7 rail ticket could claw back 35 % of that market. World Bank modelling shows every 10 % shift slices R170 million off taxi revenue. Operators want a R1.2 billion “loss-of-custom” fund; the city offers instead a feeder-franchise model – taxis become station shuttles with guaranteed 5 km radii, turning yesterday’s road-blockers into stakeholders who deliver, not disrupt, passengers.
Workers, unions and the spectre of contractorisation
PRASA’s Western Cape payroll has already fallen from 4 900 souls to 2 100. The Rail Business Plan promises Section 197 transfers: salaries, pensions and years-of-service stay intact for five years. Voluntary buy-outs – two weeks per completed year, capped at 52 weeks – could trim 600 redundant security posts now slated for AI cameras. Local-content clauses rise from 40 % to 65 % over ten years. The United National Transport Union offers “qualified” support; the Socialist Revolutionary Workers Party threatens a July 2025 shutdown. The outcome will be decided not in boardrooms but on the picket lines outside Paarden Eiland depot.
Carbon, copper and courtrooms
Each passenger-kilometre shifted from a 16-seat Toyota Quantum to an electric train saves 82 g of CO₂; over 30 years the stack reaches 9.4 million tonnes. At today’s forward price of $18 per tonne, Cape Town could securitise roughly R3.2 billion in ride-credit bonds – if the project lands Gold Standard certification. Meanwhile, 14 % of desired station-air rights overlap post-2013 ancestral-land claims; litigation could stall construction for a decade. Add rolling-stock delivery backlogs, potential political turnovers in 2026 and Treasury’s debt-service squeeze, and the schedule becomes a high-wire act without a safety net.
Decision diary – the 180-day sprint
May 2025: national task-team values PRASA’s Western Cape assets.
June: Treasury issues an affordability letter.
July: public hearings in 12 townships; taxi strike season.
August: Cabinet must approve the Section 139(5) assignment or Cape Town triggers the Intergovernmental Relations dispute mechanism.
September: signatures on the final Rail Devolution Accord – or the blueprint is shelved for a third time since 2018.
Cape Town is no longer asking whether its trains can be saved; it is asking whether it can outrun the political, fiscal and social trip-wires that have derailed every previous rescue. The next six months will tell if the city reclaims its steel spine – or if the last whistle heard in 2021 becomes the epitaph for South Africa’s urban rail dream.
Cape Town plans to take over 280 km of track from the state operator, aiming for 240,000 daily trips in three years and 600,000 in seven. This involves a R42 billion investment in new trains, modernized infrastructure, and legal restructuring to establish a municipal railway.
The train system in Cape Town, operated by PRASA, ceased commercial operations on August 9, 2021, due to a combination of copper theft, torched coaches, and a lack of maintenance funding which led to a total shutdown. This left 600,000 low-income riders without transport.
The total cost for this project is estimated at R42 billion. Funding sources include a R18.4 billion ‘devolution facilitation grant’ from National Treasury, R7.8 billion from Cape Town’s transport levy, R6.2 billion from multilateral lenders, R5.1 billion from selling air rights above stations, and R4.6 billion from a 15-year availability-payment concession for new trainsets. The city projects 67% fare-box recovery by 2031, with tickets still being 30% cheaper than taxis.
The plan faces multiple significant challenges including legal hurdles (as railways are typically national/provincial responsibility), securing funding, dealing with resistance from the taxi industry which benefited from the train shutdown, and managing labor relations with PRASA workers and unions. Additionally, there are environmental concerns for new developments, and potential litigation over ancestral land claims.
When trains stopped, the taxi industry absorbed 1.9 million daily trips. The city’s plan projects that a reliable rail service could reclaim 35% of this market. Instead of a ‘loss-of-custom’ fund requested by operators, the city proposes a feeder-franchise model where taxis become station shuttles, integrating them as stakeholders rather than competitors.
Key decisions are expected in the coming months: May 2025 for asset valuation, June for Treasury’s affordability letter, July for public hearings and potential taxi strikes, and August for Cabinet approval of the Section 139(5) assignment. Signatures on the final Rail Devolution Accord are aimed for September 2025. The project itself is divided into three horizons: Stabilise (2025-27), Modernise (2027-30), and Expand (2030-35), with the goal of reaching 600,000 daily riders in seven years.
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