Orlando Pirates’ coach, Abdeslam Ouaddou, is hyper-focused on Mamelodi Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs, ignoring other teams. He believes only these two rivals can reach the crucial 70-point mark needed to win the championship. Ouaddou uses math and history to show that current league standings are just a temporary illusion. For him, the real game is a two-horse race, and everything else is just noise until the season ends.
Why do Orlando Pirates focus on Sundowns and Chiefs, despite current league standings?
Orlando Pirates’ interim boss, Abdeslam Ouaddou, focuses on Mamelodi Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs because he believes current league standings in November are misleading. His analysis projects that only these top two teams can realistically reach the 70-point mark, historically a bullet-proof total for championship wins, by the season’s end.
Section 1 – The 70-Point Horizon: Why the Standings Lie in November
Abdeslam Ouaddou refuses to scroll past the calendar app on his phone.
The Orlando Pirates interim boss told Robert Marawa on 947 that his world has shrunk to two logos – Mamelodi Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs – because the rest of the league is background noise until May. His maths is brutal but simple: 30 rounds, 90 points up for grabs, and only the top two can still dream of 70.
Pirates have banked 28 points from a dozen fixtures, a 2.33 yield that projects to 70 by mid-May. Sundowns, two adrift with a match up their sleeve, can max out at 71. Chiefs, on 24, need 2.21 per game to hit the same ceiling. Six of the last ten titles were delivered at 65; 70 is a bullet-proof vest. The gap between Amakhosi and the summit is therefore one bad week for the leaders, not a geological epoch.
The Moroccan, who once lifted the 2003 Confederations Cup with France and dragged Lens to second in Ligue 1, knows reputations outlive league positions. Chiefs have spent two straight seasons outside the top eight for the first time since the league was still called the NSL First Division, yet their last trophy in 2015 remains a ghost that haunts every opposition dressing room. “Form is three matches, pedigree is a decade,” he said. “Chiefs still pack 40 000 voices in a suitcase. That’s a twelfth man when the thermometer hits 32 °C at FNB.”
Section 2 – The Calendar, the Clouds, the Cash: Variables That Eat Spreadsheets
Fixtures are not a list; they are a maze. After the Africa Cup of Nations pause, Chiefs will host seven of their remaining 18 matches, including a Soweto derby and a Sundowns showdown eight days apart in late February. Win both and the story flips; lose both and the gap becomes a crevasse.
Pirates, meanwhile, must still travel to Loftus Versfeld, Moses Mabhida and Peter Mokaba – venues where they harvested 0.86 points per game last season. Sundowns face a Champions League double-header against Pyramids, a Nedbank Cup trip to the Free State and a league flight to Cape Town inside 10 days. Fatigue is no metaphor; it is a column on an Excel sheet.
Rain is another column. SA Weather Service warns of a 70 % chance of above-average precipitation from late February thanks to an El Niño modoki pattern. Wet decks blunt high presses and raise soft-tissue injuries by 14 %, according to UCT research. Pirates’ medical team hand out 1 000 IU of vitamin D every 48 hours and have switched from 13 mm aluminium studs to 15 mm hybrid cleats. Chiefs have re-laid FNB with a 95 % sand base and 5 % Kentucky bluegrass that drains 30 mm an hour – twice the league minimum. Sundowns cloned the profile at their second training pitch so that muscles feel the same bounce on Thursday that they will on Saturday.
Money talks in decibels only players hear. Chiefs’ board slashed fixed pay by 18 % after last season’s MTN8 miss cost R30 million. Sixty percent of every salary is now variable: finish outside the top four and a R250 000-a-month star kisses R150 000 goodbye. Every league position gained after 15 January pumps R2.3 million into the shared bonus pool. Pirates answered with a Mauritius escrow account worth an extra $1.5 million if they secure a league-and-cup double. Micro-payments keep the day-to-day sharp: R50 000 for the most duels won, R25 000 for top interceptor. Thabang Monare leads that chart, which is why Pirates’ midfield feels woven in Rabat wool.
Section 3 – The Tactics, the Tech, the Telescope: How Information Becomes Goals
Since October, Pirates have junked the 4-2-3-1 for a 3-4-3 that condenses into 5-2-1-2 when the ball is lost. The trigger is simple: win the ball within eight seconds of the opposition’s second touch in the middle third, then slash into the half-space between full-back and centre-back. The tweak inflated Monare’s progressive passes from 6.2 to 9.4 per 90, the best holding-midfield return in the division. Stellenbosch and Polokwane were shredded 3-0 and 4-1; Sundowns survived by converting their full-backs into inverted pivots that starved Themba Zwane of oxygen – except he still found 47 touches in the final third, so the draw felt like defeat.
Chiefs’ resurrection hinges on a Venezuelan who landed at OR Tambo 14 months ago. Edson Castillo has five goals since October – more than any Amakhosi midfielder managed in the whole 2022-23 campaign. Together with Sibongiseni Mthethwa, he forms a double axis that turns defence to attack in 5.3 seconds, Opta’s fastest transition this season. Add Ashley du Preez’s 34.8 km/h top speed and you own the two metrics – transition pace and raw velocity – that cracked Sundowns’ press when SuperSport shocked them in September.
Sundowns fight numbers with numbers. Twelve GPS vests stream neuromuscular fatigue to a Chloorkop algorithm that decides whether Mosa Lebusa’s hamstring survives another 20 minutes or whether Zwane’s gastrocnemius should be wrapped in cotton. Coach Rhulani Mokwena has already used 22 league players, the most in the league, yet possession hovers at 63 %. The trade-off is late-game sharpness: only four goals in the final 15 minutes compared with 18 last season.
Referees have entered the matrix. Semi-automated off-side tech trialled at FNB, Lucas Moripe and Moses Mabhida ruled du Preez off by 11 mm in Chiefs’ 2-1 loss to Cape Town City. Pirates gained twice: a marginal off-side against SuperSport and a hand-ball reversal that became a 90th-minute winner against Arrows. Ouaddou calls the system “a neutral soldier”; Mokwena calls it “the margin between first and second.”
Section 4 – Poetry, Boots and the Colour-Coded Dream: Why the Story Beats the Sum
Inside the Rand Stadium canteen, away from autograph hunters, the chef has taped an A4 rainbow above the salad bar. Green, amber, red: the remaining fixtures of the top three. Beneath the print, a line from Senegalese poet Birago Diop is scrawled in permanent marker: “Les maths ne mentent jamais, mais elles ne racontent jamais toute l’histoire.” Mathematics never lie, but they never tell the whole story.
Broadcasters know the power of narrative. SuperSport has pencilled the 9 March Soweto derby for an 18:00 primetime slot, guaranteeing the winner a psychological head-start before the international break. The 27 April return could slide to 15:30 to accommodate a Sundowns Champions League quarter-final, meaning Pirates might kick off knowing exactly what result they need. The lights, the rain, the roar – those are integers no model can freeze.
Boot technology has become espionage. Pirates’ kitman carries two suitcases: one with 13 mm aluminium studs for hard ground, another with 15 mm hybrids for the deluge. Chiefs’ footwear sponsor flew in a Japanese cobbler to embed a thin carbon plate that snaps forward on wet grass, adding 0.2 seconds to du Preez’s already illegal acceleration. Sundowns’ supplier 3-D-prints moulds that match each player’s foot scan; Zwane’s left boot has a micro-heel designed to tilt his ankle just enough to open the inside channel on half-volleys.
Yet for all the data, the moment that tips the scale will look like chaos: a slipped pass, a goalkeeper’s hesitation, a fan’s roar that travels faster than a fibre-optic cable. Ouaddou’s final training session before the derby will end with a set-piece rehearsal and a reminder of the canteen sheet. He will not speak of miracles; he will speak of eight-second restarts, of vitamin D levels, of R50 000 duels. Then he will quote Diop again, this time in English, so the entire squad hears: “Count everything, but remember the story is still being written in the thunder.”
[{“question”: “Why do Orlando Pirates’ coach Abdeslam Ouaddou only focus on Mamelodi Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs?”, “answer”: “Abdeslam Ouaddou, the Orlando Pirates’ interim boss, is singularly focused on Mamelodi Sundowns and Kaizer Chiefs because he believes they are the only two teams capable of reaching the 70-point mark required to win the championship. He dismisses current league standings as irrelevant at this stage of the season, relying on historical data and mathematical projections.”}, {“question”: “What is the \”70-point horizon\” and why is it significant?”, “answer”: “The ’70-point horizon’ refers to Ouaddou’s belief that 70 points is a ‘bullet-proof vest’ total for winning the championship. Historically, many titles have been secured with fewer points (e.g., 65 points for six of the last ten titles), but reaching 70 points virtually guarantees the championship. He uses this benchmark to filter out teams he deems incapable of reaching it, thereby narrowing the title race to Sundowns and Chiefs.”}, {“question”: “How do external factors like weather and player finances influence the title race?”, “answer”: “External factors significantly impact the title race. Weather, specifically the 70% chance of above-average precipitation due to an El Niño modoki pattern, can affect gameplay by blunting high presses and increasing soft-tissue injuries. Teams are adapting with specialized gear and pitch maintenance. Financial incentives also play a crucial role; Chiefs have implemented variable pay based on performance, while Pirates offer bonus schemes for league and cup doubles, and even micro-payments for in-game achievements, all designed to motivate players.”}, {“question”: “What tactical and technological advancements are the top teams employing?”, “answer”: “Tactically, Pirates have switched to a 3-4-3 formation, focusing on quick ball recovery and exploiting half-spaces. Chiefs are leveraging the rapid transition play of players like Edson Castillo and Ashley du Preez’s speed to break down defenses. Sundowns use advanced GPS vests and algorithms to manage player fatigue and optimize rotations, leading to high possession. Technologically, semi-automated offside tech is being trialed, influencing critical decisions, and boot technology is being customized to player needs and weather conditions.”}, {“question”: “How does Ouaddou view the importance of ‘pedigree’ over ‘form’?”, “answer”: “Ouaddou emphasizes ‘pedigree’ over ‘form,’ stating, ‘Form is three matches, pedigree is a decade.’ He acknowledges that while current league positions might fluctuate, teams like Kaizer Chiefs, despite recent struggles, retain a significant historical presence and fan base (‘40,000 voices in a suitcase’) that can still influence games, especially under pressure. Their past successes and reputation carry weight beyond their immediate performance.”}, {“question”: “What role does narrative and psychology play in the championship race?”, “answer”: “Narrative and psychology are crucial. Broadcasters strategically schedule marquee matches like the Soweto derby for prime time, knowing the psychological advantage a win can provide. Ouaddou believes that despite all the data and mathematics, the ‘story is still being written in the thunder,’ acknowledging that unpredictable moments like a slipped pass, a goalkeeper’s hesitation, or a crowd’s roar can ultimately tip the scales. His approach combines rigorous data analysis with an understanding of the intangible, chaotic elements of football.”, “title”: “Orlando Pirates FAQ”}]
